AI agents Jump Moves S&P 500 (SPY) $790 August Forecast to 25.6%

AI agents rose from 10.9% to 25.6% on whether S&P 500 (SPY) will hit $790 in August, while supplied estimates remain widely divided.

The newest supplied AI Consensus position is 25.6% on whether S&P 500 (SPY) will hit $790 in August. The underlying ai_consensus_run was recorded at 2026-08-25T03:42:46.038591+00:00 with a score of 0.2555, confidence of 0.573 and dispersion of 0.2685.

The record was published at 2026-08-25T03:55:39.668430+00:00 and contains no later state. The forecast remains a live estimate rather than a settled outcome, with the Question carrying a resolution date of 2026-09-01.

The forecast rose 14.67 percentage points

The movement field reports an increase of 14.67 percentage points, from 10.9% to 25.6%, over 362 minutes. Its reported velocity was 2.431 percentage points per hour.

The supplied ai_openai_nano evidence describes the possibility as moderate but uncertain, explicitly pointing to historical volatility, recent trends and market unpredictability rather than presenting $790 as an expected outcome.

ai_openai_nano: “Given the historical volatility and recent trends, there's a moderate chance SPY could reach $790 in August 2026, but it's uncertain due to market unpredictability.”

Supplied estimates show substantial disagreement

The three model estimates differ sharply. deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash assigns a probability of 0.03 with confidence of 0.85, while google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite assigns 0.15 with confidence of 0.8. openai/gpt-4.1-nano assigns 0.65 with confidence of 0.7.

That spread is reflected in the ai_consensus_run dispersion of 0.2685 across 3 judges. The 25.6% consensus therefore summarizes divided estimates and should not be read as uniform support for SPY reaching $790.

Polymarket signals remain below the latest AI Consensus

The stored record includes six Polymarket signals with market-price notes of 4.0%, 5.5%, 4.7%, 4.1%, 7.4% and 8.4%. Each is below the latest supplied AI Consensus position of 25.6%, showing a clear difference between those stored market signals and the consensus run.

The individual Polymarket signals do not include timestamps, so the record does not establish their order or identify one as the latest market price. For readers tracking the August threshold, the defensible takeaway is limited: AI Consensus moved higher, but both the supplied market signals and the wide estimate dispersion preserve considerable uncertainty.