Bank of Israel August 2026 Rate-Hike Forecast Rises to 50.7%

The forecast for a 25 bps Bank of Israel hike moved from 32.0% to 50.7%, while supplied models and market signals remained sharply divided.

The live forecast on whether the Bank of Israel will hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting rose from 32.0% to 50.7% over 306 minutes. That 18.7-point increase was the newest supplied position when the alert was published at 2026-08-25T02:39:28.634304+00:00.

A separate AI Consensus run at 2026-08-25T02:35:53.929636+00:00 recorded a score of 0.4168, confidence of 0.4594 and dispersion of 0.265 across 2 judges. These remain live estimates rather than confirmation of what the Bank of Israel will decide.

Inflation trends and policy signals support the higher estimate

The ai_openai_nano evidence says a 25 bps hike is plausible but not certain, based on recent inflation trends and monetary policy signals from the Bank of Israel. It also identifies market expectations and economic data as influences on the decision.

The corresponding openai/gpt-4.1-nano reasoning assigned probability 0.65 with confidence 0.7. This view supplied the clearest support for the upward forecast movement.

openai/gpt-4.1-nano: “Based on recent inflation trends and monetary policy signals from the Bank of Israel, a 25 bps hike is plausible but not certain.”

Supplied forecasts remain sharply divided

The deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash reasoning was more cautious, assigning probability 0.12 with confidence 0.55. It said inflation was likely still above target but moderating and that market pricing suggested a low probability.

The Polymarket signals were lower still. Two supplied entries carried probabilities of 0.001 and 0.0015, while each accompanying note stated: “Polymarket market price is 0.1%”. The gap between those signals and the higher model estimate shows that the upward move did not produce a uniform forecast.

Two ukhsa_updates signals each recorded probability 0.5 and described coverage as mixed or neutral, with a context relevance score of 0.31. Their neutral readings add to the record’s overall uncertainty rather than resolving the question.

What remains unresolved before 2026-08-31

The forecast question has a resolution date of 2026-08-31. Until then, the supplied reasoning points to inflation trends, Bank of Israel monetary policy signals, market expectations and economic data as the relevant factors, without supplying a settled outcome.