Forecast caution as exact 3.4% August inflation odds fall to 48.7%
The forecast for annual inflation of exactly 3.4% in August fell from 53.0% to 48.7% over 114 minutes ahead of the 2026-09-11 resolution date.
The stored alert published at 2026-08-25T04:31:22.662514+00:00 reports that the forecast for annual inflation to be exactly 3.4% in August fell from 53.0% to 48.7% over 114 minutes. Its movement data records a delta of -4.27 percentage points and a velocity of -2.255 percentage points per hour. The 48.7% position is a live estimate rather than a settled outcome.
A separate AI Consensus run at 2026-08-25T04:27:15.010860+00:00 produced a score of 0.12 with confidence of 0.7, dispersion of 0.0 and 1 judge. That estimate is lower than the alert’s 48.7% forecast position, showing that the supplied assessments do not present a single probability.
Why the exact 3.4% outcome received a low model estimate
Evidence attributed to ai_deepseek_flash states that current inflation was around 2.9% in July 2026. The source emphasizes that the question concerns an exact 3.4% result rather than a broader inflation range and says typical monthly CPI volatility makes an exact match unlikely.
The question carries a resolution date of 2026-09-11. Until that resolution, the movement, model score and market prices remain forecasts rather than confirmation of August annual inflation.
ai_deepseek_flash: “Hitting exactly 3.4% is a precise target; typical monthly CPI volatility makes an exact match unlikely.”
Polymarket signals sit below the alert’s 48.7% position
The stored Polymarket notes report market prices of 43.0%, 43.5%, 40.5%, 42.5% and 42.0%. Each is below the alert’s reported 48.7% position and above the AI Consensus score of 0.12.
No timestamps accompany those Polymarket signals. They therefore provide additional market observations, but the record does not establish which was latest or whether any remains the current price.
Other economics forecasts were also moving
A related economics alert at 2026-08-25T04:32:44.530688+00:00 reports that AI Consensus on whether the ECB would announce no change at the September 2026 meeting moved down 19.4 points over 367 minutes, from 65.1% to 45.7%. That separate monetary-policy forecast does not resolve the August inflation question.
Another related alert at 2026-08-25T04:22:45.562647+00:00 reports that AI Consensus on whether the US would lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August moved up 13.7 points over 360 minutes, from 50.9% to 64.6%. It supplies additional August economics context, but its outcome should be tracked independently from the exact 3.4% inflation forecast.