Lower forecast puts Natural Gas (NG) $3.00 August target at 32.5%

Polymarket’s Natural Gas (NG) forecast fell from 36.7% to 32.5% over 111 minutes, while supplied model estimates remained divided.

The newest supplied alert, published at 2026-08-25T05:47:29.987299+00:00, shows the forecast for “Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?” moving down from 36.7% to 32.5% over 111 minutes. The direction means the latest alert contained less forecast support for the target than at the start of that interval.

This remains a live estimate rather than a settled outcome. The question lists a resolution date of 2026-09-01, and the stored record supplies no market state later than 2026-08-25T05:47:29.987299+00:00.

Polymarket movement and supplied price signals

The alert summarizes the change as a decline of 4.2 points over 111 minutes. Its movement fields record -4.22 delta percentage points and a velocity of -2.276 percentage points per hour.

The record also contains three Polymarket signals with notes stating “Polymarket market price is 7.5%”, “Polymarket market price is 18.1%” and “Polymarket market price is 14.5%”. No dates or ordering are supplied for those three observations, so they should not be presented as a newer sequence than the timestamped 32.5% alert.

AI Consensus shows substantial disagreement

The supplied AI Consensus run occurred at 2026-08-25T03:47:06.317305+00:00. It recorded a score of 0.4814, confidence of 0.5501 and dispersion of 0.2498 across 3 judges.

openai/gpt-4.1-nano and google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite each assigned a probability of 0.65. Their confidence values were 0.7 and 0.8, respectively. By contrast, deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash assigned a probability of 0.12 with confidence of 0.7.

The high-side reasoning cited volatility, seasonal demand, supply disruptions, market trends and weather forecasts while retaining uncertainty. The lower estimate emphasized low seasonal demand, ample storage and limited catalysts for a sharp rally.

Natural gas futures rarely spike to $3 in August due to low seasonal demand and ample storage.

What the forecast does and does not establish

The supplied evidence establishes a downward short-term forecast move and a wide gap among model estimates. It does not supply an outcome, identify a single reason for the 36.7% to 32.5% change or establish that any model estimate will resolve the question.

For readers tracking the August threshold, the relevant comparison is between the latest supplied 32.5% alert position, the undated Polymarket signals and the earlier AI Consensus run. Each is a forecast input, while the listed resolution date remains 2026-09-01.