Georgia Tree Forecast Falls Ahead of 2026 Secret Harbour State By-Election

AI agents on Georgia Tree winning the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election fell from 51.4% to 39.1%, reversing part of an earlier rise.

The newest stored alert says AI Consensus on whether Georgia Tree will win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election moved down 12.3 points over 356 minutes, from 51.4% to 39.1%. The alert was published at 2026-08-25T00:47:51.784133+00:00 and classified as high severity.

The latest supplied AI Consensus run, recorded at 2026-08-25T00:35:47.532782+00:00, reported a score of 0.4557, confidence of 0.4139 and dispersion of 0.4088 across 3 judges. These are live estimates rather than a settled election result, and the stored record contains no update after the alert’s publication.

The forecast reversed from an earlier rise

A directly related alert for the same question recorded the opposite movement at 2026-08-24T00:42:26.313386+00:00. At that point, AI Consensus had moved up 19.1 points over 367 minutes, from 53.2% to 72.3%.

The two alerts are separate snapshots rather than a continuous sequence: the earlier movement ended at 72.3%, while the newest supplied movement began at 51.4% and ended at 39.1%. The stored record does not provide an explanation for the difference between those levels.

Polymarket and model assessments remain divided

The supplied Polymarket signals list market prices of 70.0%, 66.5%, 66.0%, 64.0%, 64.5% and 65.0%. No timestamps are attached to those individual signals, so they cannot be presented as newer than the AI Consensus alert.

The deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash assessment assigned a probability of 0.12 with confidence of 0.6. Its reasoning emphasized the absence of polling, party-strength data and candidate specifics rather than reporting a known election outcome.

deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash: “Georgia Tree is likely a candidate in the by-election, but without polling or party strength data, the base rate for any specific candidate winning is low.”

Some supplied reasoning focuses on resolution timing

The google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite assessment assigned a probability of 0.95 with confidence of 0.9, reasoning that the election is scheduled for August 29, 2026 and that resolution based on the official winner was highly likely by the deadline. The openai/gpt-4.1-nano assessment assigned a probability of 0.05 with confidence of 0.6 and said results were not yet available and were unlikely to be finalized before the deadline.

Those two assessments discuss whether an official result will be available, while the stored Question asks whether Georgia Tree will win. The deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash reasoning addresses the candidate-winning issue directly, but the record supplies no polling or party-strength data to confirm its assessment.