Lower forecast odds make Natural Gas (NG) $2.60 August low less likely

The Natural Gas (NG) $2.60 August forecast fell from 25.2% to 21.0% over 98 minutes as supplied estimates continued to diverge.

The newest supplied forecast put the likelihood that Natural Gas (NG) will hit a low of $2.60 in August at 21.0% as of 2026-08-24T21:59:38.383804+00:00. The stored movement record shows the estimate falling from 25.2% to 21.0% over 98 minutes, a decline of 4.3 points.

The question has a resolution date of 2026-09-01. Until then, the probability is a live estimate rather than a settled outcome, and the stored record supplies no update after the publication timestamp.

Forecast movement and Polymarket signals

The movement record gives a delta of -4.26 percentage points and a velocity of -2.6 percentage points per hour. Those measures describe the recorded shift but do not establish what caused it.

The supplied Polymarket signals do not include timestamps or a stated sequence. Their listed market prices are 12.0%, 8.5%, 22.5%, 15.5%, 16.0% and 19.0%, showing that the stored market observations were not identical to one another or to the published 21.0% forecast.

Supplied model estimates remain divided

The AI Consensus battle ran at 2026-08-24T21:55:36.344471+00:00 and recorded a score of 0.2524, confidence of 0.5867 and dispersion of 0.1414 across 3 judges. This is a separate supplied run from the 21.0% position reported at publication.

The individual model estimates also differed. google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite assigned a probability of 0.45 with confidence of 0.7, while deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash and openai/gpt-4.1-nano each assigned 0.15, with confidence levels of 0.75 and 0.6 respectively.

google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite via openrouter: “Natural gas prices are volatile.”

What could still affect the August threshold

According to the supplied openai/gpt-4.1-nano reasoning, natural gas prices are influenced by supply, demand, weather and geopolitical factors. It said current trends and forecasts suggested a limited likelihood of reaching $2.60 in August 2026, while unforeseen events could change that assessment.

The supplied deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash reasoning placed NG futures around $2.90-$3.00 and described a fall to $2.60 as possible only with a major bearish surprise. These are attributed forecast judgments, not confirmed outcomes, and the stored question remains unresolved until 2026-09-01.