Daniel Gobeil forecast falls to 47.1% in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election

AI agents on Daniel Gobeil winning the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election fell from 66.3% to 47.1% over 361 minutes.

As of 2026-08-25T08:49:18.026214+00:00, AI Consensus on whether Daniel Gobeil will win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election had fallen from 66.3% to 47.1%. The 19.3-point decline occurred over 361 minutes, while the supplied movement record reports -19.26 percentage points and a velocity of -3.2 points per hour.

The stored question lists 2026-08-31 as its resolution date. The latest 47.1% position is a live estimate rather than a settled election outcome, and the supplied signals remain divided.

Polymarket observations and model estimates diverge

The supplied Polymarket observations are 76.5%, 79.0%, 75.0%, 72.0%, 60.5% and 44.0%. Because the record does not attach times to those individual observations, they show a range of supplied market prices rather than a confirmed chronology.

deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash estimated a probability of 0.55 with confidence of 0.65. Its reasoning says Daniel Gobeil is likely the Conservative candidate in a historically Conservative-leaning district, while also stating that by-elections can be unpredictable.

openai/gpt-4.1-nano assigned a probability of 0.05 with confidence of 0.4. Its explanation focused on whether results would be definitively known by August 25, 2026, rather than directly assessing the eventual winner. A separate ai_consensus_run at 2026-08-25T08:47:41.442371+00:00 recorded a score of 0.3595, confidence of 0.3938, dispersion of 0.25 and 2 judges.

openai/gpt-4.1-nano: “The election is scheduled for August 31, 2026, and today is August 25, 2026.”

Caroline Dubé forecast provides a same-race comparison

A directly related alert for Caroline Dubé in the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election moved up 6.2 points over 116 minutes, from 35.2% to 41.4%, at 2026-08-24T20:44:47.138604+00:00. That movement concerns another named candidate in the same contest but does not resolve the Daniel Gobeil question.

For readers tracking the race, the central supplied development is the fall in AI Consensus to 47.1%, set against Polymarket observations ranging from 44.0% to 79.0% and divergent model estimates. These remain forecasts ahead of the question’s 2026-08-31 resolution date.