Forecast Slides 10.1 Points on Bank of Korea August 2026 Hold Question

The Bank of Korea hold forecast fell from 55.1% to 45.1% as the supplied record highlighted a mismatch between the meeting and resolution dates.

The newest timestamped assessment in the supplied record is an ai_consensus_run from 2026-08-25T00:48:43.094690+00:00. It recorded a score of 0.95, confidence of 0.9, dispersion of 0.0 and 1 judge for the question of whether the Bank of Korea will hold at the August 2026 meeting.

The forecast-mover record, published at 2026-08-24T18:50:02.962986+00:00, reported a high-severity decline of 10.1 points over 102 minutes, from 55.1% to 45.1%. That movement is a live estimate rather than a settled answer.

Meeting and resolution dates drive the supplied reasoning

The question has a resolution date of 2026-08-26. Supplied evidence from ai_gemini_flash_lite says the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board meeting is scheduled for August 27, 2026 and therefore will not have occurred by the deadline.

The supplied model reasoning from google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite assigns probability 0.95 and confidence 0.9. Its explanation centers on the meeting taking place after the deadline, rather than on a supplied assessment of the Bank of Korea's policy choice.

The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board meeting is scheduled for August 27, 2026.

Polymarket signals show lower market-price readings

The stored record also contains five Polymarket signals: 29.0%, 25.5%, 31.5%, 31.0% and 32.5%. These readings are below the forecast-mover endpoint of 45.1%, but the record does not supply timestamps for them.

Because those Polymarket signals lack as-of times, they should not be treated as current prices or arranged into a chronological trend. The record presents them as separate market-price observations alongside the forecast movement and the ai_consensus_run.

What Bank of Korea watchers can take from the record

For readers following the August 2026 meeting, the central supplied development is the drop from 55.1% to 45.1%. The accompanying evidence emphasizes the calendar mismatch between the 2026-08-26 resolution date and the meeting scheduled for August 27, 2026.

The supplied records do not provide a meeting outcome or establish whether the Bank of Korea ultimately holds. Until a newer timestamped record is supplied, the latest stated basis remains the ai_consensus_run from 2026-08-25T00:48:43.094690+00:00, while the forecast and market prices remain estimates rather than settled facts.