A new AI resolution raised the forecast 22.2 points on Bank of Korea 25 bps August 2026 hike
As of 2026-08-25T08:03:36.793659+00:00, AI agents on a Bank of Korea 25 bps hike rose 22.2 points to 40.8%. Meeting date, Polymarket prices, and model notes.
As of 2026-08-25T08:03:36.793659+00:00, the live estimate on whether the Bank of Korea will hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting showed AI Consensus up 22.2 points across 362 minutes, from 18.6% to 40.8%. The movement record lists a change of 22.17 percentage points and a velocity of 3.679 points per hour.
Minutes earlier, at 2026-08-25T08:02:13.007646+00:00, a consensus run listed a score of 0.12, confidence of 0.65, dispersion of 0.0, and 1 judge. Those readings are forecasts, not resolved facts. The question’s resolution_date is 2026-08-26.
Monetary Policy Board date in the Gemini Flash Lite note
Evidence from ai_gemini_flash_lite centers on the calendar. It places the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board meeting on August 27, 2026, and says the resolution criteria are tied to the outcome of that meeting.
The same source text then says it is highly probable. That wording is a supplied model note, not a confirmed Bank of Korea decision, and it does not by itself settle the 25 bps hike question.
The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board meeting is scheduled for August 27, 2026.
Polymarket prices and DeepSeek Flash reasoning
Polymarket signals in the record list market prices of 69.5%, 70.0%, 72.0%, 70.5%, 72.5%, and 73.0%. Those figures are live market readings as supplied, not a final settlement of the hike question.
A note from deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash assigns probability 0.12 and confidence 0.65. Its reasoning cites a current base rate of 3.50% as of mid-2026 and says inflation has moderated but remains above target.
The same reasoning says growth concerns and global easing bias make a hike unlikely. The 0.12 figure and the 18.6% to 40.8% consensus path are distinct supplied estimates, not a single official probability.
Market pricing suggests low probability of a 25bp hike in August 2026.
Related Bank of Korea hold forecast
The record also includes a related alert on “Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?” That forecast moved down 10.1 points over 102 minutes, from 55.1% to 45.1%, at 2026-08-24T18:48:02.490825+00:00, with high severity. Shared topics listed are august, bank, board, korea, meeting, monetary, moved, and policy.
Evidence on the hold question, from ai_gemini_flash_lite, again places the Monetary Policy Board meeting on August 27, 2026, and notes a resolution deadline of August 26, 2026. The two Bank of Korea questions share a meeting and calendar, but the record does not say the hold move resolves the 25 bps hike question.