Latest State: ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast Score at 0.04 After Odds Jump

The latest supplied ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast score is 0.04 after an earlier move from 42.6% to 54.2%. Compare the recorded signals.

The latest supplied state for “Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?” is an AI Consensus score of 0.04 at 2026-08-25T04:42:41.247865+00:00. The run reports confidence of 0.1, dispersion of 0.0 and 1 judge. This is a live estimate rather than a settled outcome.

That state follows a high-severity alert published at 2026-08-25T04:21:11.641093+00:00. The alert recorded AI Consensus moving from 42.6% to 54.2% over 336 minutes, a change of 11.66 percentage points at 2.081 percentage points per hour. The earlier movement and the later 0.04 score are distinct supplied readings, and the record does not explain their difference.

Polymarket prices and model reasoning differ

The supplied Polymarket signals list market prices of 30.0%, 31.0%, 31.5% and 28.5%. No timestamps are attached to those individual observations, so the record does not establish which one represents the latest Polymarket position.

The deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash reasoning assigns probability 0.04 with confidence 0.1. It says readings in the specified bracket have occurred roughly 5% of the time since 2020 and describes economic trends as near 50. Those statements are model reasoning supplied in the record, not a reported outcome.

The forecast concerns a narrow interval: ISM Manufacturing PMI between 55.0 and 55.9 in August. The question lists a resolution date of 2026-09-01, so the available estimates should be read as unresolved forecasts until resolution.

Report timing and related economics forecasts

The scheduling evidence comes from ai_gemini_flash_lite. The same evidence says the question will resolve by the deadline, while the question record separately lists 2026-09-01 as its resolution date.

Other supplied economics alerts moved in different directions. AI Consensus on whether the ECB will announce no change at the September 2026 meeting fell 19.4 points over 367 minutes, from 65.1% to 45.7%. The forecast for annual inflation being 3.4% in August fell 4.3 points over 114 minutes, from 53.0% to 48.7%.

The supplied outlook on whether the US will lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August rose 13.7 points over 360 minutes, from 50.9% to 64.6%. These related economics movements provide context but do not determine whether ISM Manufacturing PMI will land between 55.0 and 55.9.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for September 1, 2026, 10:00 AM ET, which is before the resolution deadline of September 1, 2026, 06:00 UTC.