Hold forecast drops to 79.2% before the Bank of Israel August 2026 meeting

The Bank of Israel hold forecast fell from 83.6% to 79.2% ahead of the August 2026 meeting, while a linked 25 bps hike forecast rose.

At 2026-08-25T08:44:11.298411+00:00, the medium-severity alert reported that the forecast for a Bank of Israel hold had declined from 83.6% to 79.2% during 65 minutes. The movement field separately records -4.37 percentage points and a velocity of -4.022 percentage points per hour.

The 79.2% position remains a live estimate rather than a settled decision. The underlying question, “Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?”, has a resolution date of 2026-08-31.

Supplied signals show different assessments

The AI consensus run at 2026-08-25T08:40:12.521616+00:00 supplied a score of 0.2, confidence of 0.6 and dispersion of 0.0. Its reasoning cited monetary policy patterns, current economic indicators, global economic conditions and inflation trends while emphasizing uncertainty.

The supplied Polymarket signal notes list market prices of 92.0%, 91.0%, 91.5%, 90.5%, 88.5% and 89.5%. Those entries do not include dates, so the record does not establish which is the latest Polymarket reading or whether their methodology is directly comparable with the alert forecast and AI consensus score.

Taken together, the record supports a cautious reading: the alert’s hold estimate moved lower, but the supplied sources do not present one uniform probability. None of these estimates establishes the meeting outcome.

openai/gpt-4.1-nano: “Based on typical monetary policy patterns and current economic indicators, a hold is somewhat likely, but uncertainties remain due to global economic conditions and inflation trends.”

The linked 25 bps hike forecast moved higher

A directly related Bank of Israel alert at 2026-08-25T02:35:52.325754+00:00 reported that the forecast for a 25 bps hike rose from 32.0% to 50.7% over 306 minutes, an 18.7-point increase. Its ai_openai_nano evidence described a 25 bps hike as plausible but not certain and said market expectations and economic data would influence the decision.

The falling hold estimate and rising 25 bps hike estimate are opposing movements tied to the same August 2026 meeting. They do not settle either question, and the stored record supplies no later Bank of Israel decision beyond the published alert state.